The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the December 2025 inflation report this week (January 15). At Parthian Partners, we project headline inflation to edge higher to 31.45% y/y, marking a potential break in the eight-month disinflationary trend.

However, we view the anticipated uptick as largely transitory rather than the start of a renewed inflationary cycle, as it is expected to be driven primarily by base effects. Recall that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was rebased in January 2025, with December 2024 adopted as the new base period and indexed to 100. Consequently, the statistical base is now less supportive of year-on-year disinflation, even as underlying price pressures continue to ease.