As Nigeria approaches 2026, the economy faces a complex landscape defined by a mix of opportunities, risks, and transformative trends. Speaking at the Parthian Economic Discourse, leading economist Bismarck Rewane highlighted several critical factors that will shape economic performance in the year ahead, influencing decisions for businesses, investors, and policymakers.
The 2026 general elections are expected to trigger significant government spending. While this may provide short-term economic stimulus, it is likely to intensify inflationary pressures later in the year.
The renowned Economist expects Nigeria’s debt service obligations to decline by about 4%, resulting in savings of about N500 billion, supported in part by declining interest rates. This could free up fiscal space for capital projects, infrastructure development, and social programs. Reduced debt servicing also improves sovereign credit sustainability, potentially lowering borrowing costs and increasing investor confidence.
The planned public listings of Dangote Group and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) are expected to increase market capitalization to a record ₦263 trillion, creating unprecedented opportunities for domestic and foreign investors. These high-profile listings may attract long-term capital inflows, deepen market liquidity, and broaden equity market participation.
The federal budget for 2026 will set the tone for fiscal policy and priorities. Its structure and execution will influence macroeconomic stability, business confidence, and investment planning. Investors will closely monitor allocations to infrastructure, industrial policy, and social spending.
Oil prices are projected to hover below $60 per barrel, creating headwinds for revenue generation and fiscal balance. While Nigeria’s oil-dependent revenues remain sensitive to global prices, prudent fiscal and monetary management could mitigate downside risks.
Persistent insecurity continues to undermine economic activity, affecting agriculture, trade, and foreign direct investment. Policy responses and security improvements will be critical in shaping business confidence and sustaining growth.
The ongoing tax reform agenda, including the new Capital Gains Tax (CGT) framework and broader rationalization of levies, will influence disposable incomes, investment flows, and corporate compliance. Effective implementation will determine whether the reforms support long-term growth or create short-term market uncertainty.
The proposed 15% import duty on fuel is expected to impact both consumers and industries reliant on imported petroleum products. While the measure aims to promote local refining and reduce fiscal exposure, it may introduce pricing pressures in the short term.
AI adoption is set to accelerate across sectors, driving productivity gains, operational efficiency, and innovative business models. Companies embracing AI will likely gain competitive advantage, while laggards may face operational risks.
Digital and social commerce will continue to grow, reshaping retail, payments, and marketing channels. This trend presents significant opportunities for technology-enabled startups and traditional businesses seeking to expand their market reach.
Nigeria’s GDP is projected to grow moderately at 3.2% to 3.4%, reflecting a balance between fiscal stimulus, structural constraints, and global economic conditions. While not robust, this growth trajectory suggests resilience, especially if private sector activity and investment inflows accelerate.
Conclusion: Navigating Complexity
The factors outlined by Bismarck Rewane underscore a year of both opportunities and caution for Nigeria’s economy. While high-profile listings, AI adoption, and tax reforms present transformative potential, election-related spending, oil price pressures, and insecurity pose clear risks.
For investors and businesses, the coming year will demand strategic agility, careful risk assessment, and proactive engagement with policy developments. Those who can navigate these dynamics thoughtfully stand to benefit from Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape in 2026.