The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the November 2025 Consumer Price Index and Inflation data on December 15. Based on our model, Nigeria’s headline inflation is expected to extend its disinflationary trend in November, moderating further to 14.31% year-on-year, down from 16.05% in October. This would represent the seventh straight month of cooling inflation, reflecting a clear improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals and favourable base effect. Improved food supply conditions from the late harvest season as well as relatively stable logistics costs also contributed to a more benign pricing environment across key consumer baskets.

On a month-on-month basis, however, headline inflation is forecast to rise slightly to 1.09%, up from 0.93% in the previous month. This marginal uptick reflects seasonal demand pressures associated with the festive period.