The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation report for October 2025 will be released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on November 15/16. Based on our model, Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to maintain its downward trend, moderating further to 16.6% (year-on-year), down from 18.02% in September. This anticipated decline extends the disinflationary momentum observed in the last six months and reinforces the view that the economy is gradually stabilizing due to the combination of base effects, positive supply-side factors (harvest), and reforms, especially in the FX market.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation is expected to rise slightly to 1.41% from 0.73% in the prior month. While this increase points to mild short-term cost adjustments, the annual trend remains encouraging, supported by improved agricultural supply, easing imported inflation, and better FX market stability.