Nigeria’s inflation trajectory continued its gradual descent in February 2026, with headline inflation moderating marginally to 15.06% year-on-year, from 15.10% in January. This marks the eleventh consecutive monthly decline, reinforcing the narrative that the economy remains on a disinflation path.

However, beneath this improving headline figure lies a more nuanced reality. While the moderation reflects improving macroeconomic conditions, particularly exchange rate stability, the slow pace of decline suggests that the economy may be approaching an inflection point. More importantly, the recent rally in global oil prices, with early signs of pass-through to domestic fuel prices, coupled with a sharp rebound in month-on-month inflation, suggests that underlying price pressures are rebuilding, pointing to renewed cost pressures on consumers and businesses. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose sharply to 2.01%, reversing the -2.88% deflation recorded in January.